"There’s no doubt the traditional peaks period has been flattening for a number of years," says Gary Gillespie, managing director of Independent Travel Experts, the Travel Network Group’s homeworking outfit. "And I believe that trend will continue”.

In late-2023, Hays Travel predicted 2024 would be the "year of two peaks", something they doubled-down on early last year; albeit ever the optimist, this – in Dame Irene Hays’s own words – later became hope of a sustained "high plateau rather than a peak".

And with one agent earlier this year likening peaks 2025 to a period of "feast or famine" depending on the day of the week, is travel’s calendar starting to align with Hays’s original prediction? And if so, what’s shaking up these established trading patterns?

’Value-led purchasing’

Blue Bay Travel’s The Personal Travel Consultants are seeing more customers book immediately after payday each month, creating “short, sharp” spikes in demand it believes are “replacing traditional peaks”.

Abbie Heaton, Blue Bay Travel group manager, believes this is fuelling a separate, but related, trend towards clients booking late. In May, the Advantage Travel Partnership revealed lates – bookings within 12 weeks of departure – were running at nearly 40%.

"There’s a lot of political uncertainty, and people are strapped for cash, so bookings [at the moment] are for this summer," she explains. "There’s a lot of value-led purchasing – this is what we’ve seen since April."

This aligns with others. Not Just Travel claims to have seen a more than 40% jump in bookings on the first working day of each month this year compared with its daily average. "Our data for 2025 to date shows that when the bank balance gets a boost, so does the desire to plan that next getaway," says co-founder Steve Witt.

InteleTravel, meanwhile, confirms bookings and revenue increased by 13% and 20% respectively in the seven-day periods after payday between December 2024 and May 2025. It underscores consumers’ willingness to pare back just about all other areas of non-essential spending to preserve their holidays, even if they have to trade down on destination, board basis or duration.

It’s perhaps unsurprising when you consider Barclays’ recent 10 Years of Spend report, which reveals half of consumers value holidays more than they did a decade ago, while a third now dedicate a greater share of their income to getaways.

’The inevitable payday surge’

Tricia Handley-Hughes, InteleTravel’s UK and Ireland managing director, insists that while the turn-of-year peaks bookings period remains “important”, its data shows how crucial it is to run promotional campaigns in the third week of each month to “optimise opportunities” for payday bookings.

Not Just Travel’s Witt stresses its 720-plus consultants are “well aware” of this new trend, adding: “Our BDMs help them ramp up their efforts during this period to follow up on leads and close sales."

TTG Insight Report: new data reveals how peaks evolved in 2025

Ready-to-use emails, WhatsApp messages and social media templates are distributed to consultants by Not Just Travel’s marketing team in the lead-up to payday. “It’s all about being there at the right time when customers are most receptive to booking their next adventure,” Witt adds.

Advantage’s commercial director John Sullivan says the consortium’s members are "consistently" being advised to prepare for “the inevitable payday surge”. But why else are consumers choosing to book throughout the year rather than during the usual turn-of-year trading period?

Gillespie says customers feel more confident making decisions when it suits them financially. “This means we’re seeing more short bursts of demand across the year, particularly around paydays,” he explains.

“We definitely saw an uplift in bookings around payday in May. Many of our homeworkers reported enquiries, which had been ongoing throughout the month, were confirmed as soon as salaries landed, particularly for those higher-value trips to places like the Indian Ocean and the UAE.”

He adds: “It’s a clear sign booking patterns are evolving and becoming more fluid – and as an industry, we need to adapt our strategies accordingly.”

Sullivan says the trend mirrors what other consumer-facing sectors – including hospitality and entertainment – are seeing, where “payday-driven purchasing behaviour influences monthly trading patterns”.

“In recent years, we’ve witnessed the emergence of additional peak sales periods, Black Friday being a prime example, that our members are increasingly leveraging to drive business growth,” he explains.

There are other hypotheses. Low deposits and payment plans have “stabilised” the traditional payday peak, says Nicki Tempest-Mitchell, Barrhead Travel’s managing director.

Travel Counsellors’ chief executive Steve Byrne says that while his team have not seen a “clear" link between bookings and payday, the agency was aware of “the trend towards more spontaneous payday-driven bookings”.

However, he adds: “For us, performance is driven more by the strength of the trusted relationships our Travel Counsellors build with their customers."

Is this the end of peaks?

Not everyone thinks we’re witnessing the end of the traditional peaks, though. Sullivan strongly argues turn-of-year peaks sales will “remain a cornerstone of our annual trading calendar”.

Premier Travel managing director Paul Waters doesn’t think payday sales spikes are any more pronounced this year than in previous years. “A lot of our core customers are retired so they’re not waiting for payday,” he notes. "But younger couples, working professionals in their 40s and 50s and families are.”

Waters believes sales spikes are more likely to be driven by suppliers’ sales campaigns closing at the end of the month and staff rushing to convert enquiries into bookings to ensure they hit their monthly targets.

Tempest-Mitchell adds: “Ultimately, people are looking for value – and the most important thing is that they feel that they’re getting a great deal at time of purchase.”

Despite his insistence peaks will flatten, Gillespie concedes the industry will “always” see a surge in demand in January and February. This, he says, is driven by “heavyweight marketing” from suppliers and the seasonal desire for sunshine.

However, he warns: “The old motivators like free child places or limited hotel availability don’t carry the same weight they once did."