Martin Alcock, director of the Travel Trade Consultancy, told Aito conference delegates on Friday (28 November) the lates market was "as late as ever" and that the trend could result in firms taking ever-bigger risks to secure bookings.
Alcock's warning came just days after Abta's Travel Trends conference was told a lot of the progress the industry has made encouraging people to book early was coming undone. "Covid happened and now we’re discounting again," said Hotelplan marketing director Dean Harvey. "We’ve re-educated the public to wait for the deal – we’re our own worst enemy."
In a wide-ranging market update on the first day of the Aito conference in Asturias, Alcock said these shifts in consumer booking patterns had the potential to "breed nervousness" within businesses and could put firms on a "road to ruin", citing Thomas Cook as an example.
Alcock said travel companies were "adopting Black Friday more than ever before", citing what he described as a "very unscientific study" showing around 10% of Aito member attendees had some form of Black Friday discount advertised on their site.
He said the rise of a discount-led model was a possible consequence of the ever-later market, noting he had suspicions that seasonal price cuts might actually be cannibalising bookings that might have been made regardless. He added, on lates, discounting and Black Friday, that pressures brought about by changing consumer behaviour were "seeping into the consciousness" of the market.
Alcock's address also touched on Wednesday's Autumn Statement, which he characterised as "the least bad Budget we could have gotten". However, he branded the reduction in capital tax relief for businesses run as Employee Ownership Trusts (EOTs) from 100% to 50% "very disappointing".
Travel has several EOTs, including Attraction Tickets and ROL Cruise, and could prove a popular succession model for a number of Aito member businesses.
He encouraged delegates to "get ahead" of a changing regulatory landscape, with the government already having consulted on reforming the Atol scheme and the Package Travel Regulations. He noted too the Competition and Markets Authority's recently launched drip pricing probe.
Elsewhere, a requirement to conform with the Financial Reporting Standard, bringing the UK more closely in line with international standards, will take effect from 1 January 2026, while Abta financial tests – which were relaxed during Covid – will be reintroduced from July 2026, he said.
"The businesses that will thrive going into next year will have their heads up, be clear-headed and [be] all about preparation," he added.
Finally, Alcock highlighted further consolidation in the package market, with the top 20 Atol-holders now commanding 86% of the market – up from 74% in 2019. The total Atol market, meanwhile, has grown from 25.7 million passengers to 34.8 million during that same period.
