There’s been a distinct shortage of crystal balls for the travel industry to consult as Covid-19 has wreaked havoc on the industry, making predictions something of a fool’s errand. 

Travel businesses, though, still need to plan for the year ahead – and beyond – with hopes the worst of the pandemic is in the rear-view mirror. Thankfully, the emergence of the Omicron variant of Covid-19 appears to have only caused a “blip” in the industry’s recovery, with consumer confidence returning as soon as travel restrictions started being lifted. 

Talk to agents, and the words “positive” and “optimistic” come up time and again, but nobody expects an immediate return to pre-Covid booking trends. 

Miles Morgan, owner of agency chain Miles Morgan Travel, said: “I don’t think 2022 will see normal booking patterns. You’ve got two years of bookings crunched into one, so it’s hard to call. People are more confident and there’s strong demand for holidays. 

"The recovery is being driven by short-haul and the number of new clients has been staggering.”

Blue Bay Travel chief executive Alistair Rowland agreed 2022 would not be a “traditional” year; he expects the market to return to around 80% of 2019 levels before recovering fully in 2023. 

“There will be a smaller curve for peaks than usual and lates will be bigger,” Rowland told TTG. 

With many clients still nervous of booking – often due to the perceived “faff” of dealing with travel restrictions and forms – the lates market will be crucial. 

Holidaysplease director Richard Dixon predicted an “elongated” peaks, extending through February and into March due to “hesitant” customers. 

“It’s going to be a late-booking market,” he said. “We saw 30% of January bookings for travel in the first quarter, which surprised us. It’s immediate revenue for us, as they’re booking and going.” 

Availability issues

Many agents, though, highlight higher prices and tight availability as ongoing issues. Haslemere Travel owner Gemma Antrobus said: “People’s expectations are pre-pandemic – they’re calling up for February and Easter but their budgets aren’t sufficient and there’s no availability. They’ve still got that last-minute mentality.” 

Steve Witt, co-founder of homeworking firm Not Just Travel, agreed there would be less availability and that some clients would have to settle for “second or third-choice” destinations. 

“It will be a problem in the summer, but I don’t think customers have realised,” he said. “We see an increase in prices and less availability – customers need to get in as soon as possible.”

Staying flexible

Offering flexibility has helped deal with uncertainty, but can it continue? Witt said flexibility has been crucial to restoring confidence, adding: “It’s difficult to give really good customer service and then take it away – hopefully it’s here to stay.” 

But Jackie Steadman, founder of TravelTime World, argued the industry may need to “stop being as flexible with packages”, as it was feeding a “disinclination” to travel with some clients. 

“We can’t keep moving [dates] – at some point you have to draw a line and say: ‘I’m sorry, but you will lose your deposit’,” she said. Rowland said “one thing to watch” was whether airlines chose to continue offering flexible terms to direct customers, but not to those booking through the trade.

Agent factor 

One of Covid’s few silver linings has been the chance it’s given to agents to showcase their expertise to new customers. But will this create a prolonged bounceback to the high street and homeworkers? 

“There’s a drive back to retail agents because this pandemic has been ruled by fear, and we’re benefiting from that fear factor,” said Steadman. “People want that calming voice.” 

Antrobus agreed, saying: “By helping with every aspect of a holiday, you’re showing how indispensable you are. It depends how simple travel becomes – the demand for agents will continue if things remain relatively complex.” 

Homeworkers are also expected to benefit. Amanda Matthews, managing director of homeworking agency Designer Travel, said: “We’ve built amazing relationships with clients, and we’re expecting that to continue.

During Covid, a lot of direct businesses weren’t easy to get hold of. We gained a lot of clients and will be doing our best to retain them. We’ve proved agents are worth their weight in gold.” 

Nobody knows what 2022 holds for travel, but there are plenty of positives and opportunities for the trade to focus on after the turbulence of the past two years.