The failure of Thomas Cook on Monday (23 September) was not without a sense of deja vu; Cook came perilously close to collapse in 2011 when it issued three profit warnings in less than 12 months.
The last, in July 2011, sent its share price tumbling 25% to 93p as the Arab Spring drove holidaymakers away from the Middle East and North Africa.
Cook eventually took out a £200 million emergency loan to stave off bankruptcy, aided by a little behind-the-scenes assistance from Number 10.
A refinancing package and strategic review followed in 2012, and the business recovered under the stewardship of new chief executive Harriet Green and later Peter Fankhauser.
Cook’s share prices rose to a high of around £19 in February 2014 and fluctuated between £6-£12 as the market ebbed and flowed over several intervening years.
From comeback to collapse
Eight years hence, and the likes of Egypt, Turkey, Tunisia and Morocco are bouncing back; indeed, earlier this year, Turkey had recovered to become Cook’s second most popular destination, and Tunisia its seventh.
This time around, it was Cook’s European destinations feeling the squeeze, with Westminster able to offer little by way of certainty on today’s great unknown – Brexit.
The first of two fresh profit warnings came on 24 September 2018, whereby Cook revised its full-year profit forecast down 13% from £323 million to £280 million – citing the impact of the summer heatwave.
A second followed in late November when its full-year earnings came in at £250 million, £30 million lower than its guidance and £58 million lower than earnings achieved during the same period the previous year.
Cook said the group’s UK performance was “particularly disappointing” and vowed to overhaul its UK tour operator.
In February, it announced a “strategic review” of its airline after posting a first-quarter operating loss of £60 million, up from £14 million.
