The budget carrier, which posted its full-year results on Monday (18 May), said summer travel demand remained robust – albeit late – amid the current geopolitical challenges.
However, it said flight prices had eased in recent weeks owing to the economic uncertainty caused by higher oil prices, fear of fuel shortages and risk of inflation impacting consumer spending.
It expects fares during the first quarter of its 2027 full-year (three months to the end of June) to lag behind Q1 last year by a mid-single-digit percentage owing to the first week of the Easter holidays falling in March and therefore contributing to its Q4 2026 figures rather than Q1 2027.
And after expecting a modest (low single digits) increase in fares this summer, it is now expecting summer (Q2 – three months to the end of September) to be broadly flat.
Volatility
Ryanair said it currently has "zero visibility" for the second half of its 2027 full year (six months to the end of March 2027), adding that owing to "significant fuel price/potential supply volatility", it was "far too early" to look that far ahead.
The airline disclosed it is 80% hedged on fuel for its 2027 full year, which it said would "insulate group earnings in the current very volatile oil markets" and widen its cost advantage over EU competitors for the rest of the coming year.
"The final FY27 outcome remains heavily exposed to adverse external developments, including conflict escalation in the Middle East and Ukraine, risks to fuel supply shortages, higher for longer fuel prices on our unhedged 20%, macro-economic shocks and European ATC strikes and mismanagement."
Ryanair on Monday revealed full-year profit after tax for the year to the end of March of €2.26 billion, up 40% from last year's €1.61 billion on an 11% increase in revenue from €13.95 billion to €15.54 billion.
Load factor for its 2026 full-year was 94%, level with 2025, despite a 4% increase in passenger numbers from 200.2 million to 208.4 million. Traffic growth also came despite delays to deliveries of 29 of its new B-8200 (Boeing 737 Max) aircraft.
'Book early'
"The conflict in the Middle East has created economic uncertainty and we still don’t know when the Strait of Hormuz will reopen," said Ryanair Group Chief Executive Michael O'Leary.
"Despite this, Europe remains relatively well supplied with jet fuel, with significant volumes sourced from West Africa, the Americas and Norway. Global jet fuel spot prices have, however, spiked to over $150bbl [per barrel] and are expected to remain elevated versus pre-conflict levels for some months."
"Demand (despite the current Middle East conflict) remains robust, although the booking window is closer-in than last year. With near-term fuel prices likely to remain high, we urge all passengers book early.
"Pricing in recent weeks has eased somewhat in response to economic uncertainty caused by higher oil prices, the fear of fuel shortages and the risk of inflation adversely impacting consumer spending.
"With constrained EU short-haul capacity, we had originally expected S.26 [summer 2026] fares to rise modestly (low single digits) ahead of last year. Q2 pricing (with limited visibility) is now trending broadly flat and the final outcome will be totally dependent on close-in peak S.26 [summer 2026] bookings and fares."
