Global international arrivals may reach between 80% to 95% of pre-Covid levels but that comeback could still be impacted depending on the economic slowdown, the pace of travel recovery in Asia and the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine among contributing factors.
According to new UNWTO data, more than 900 million tourists travelled internationally in 2022 – double the number recorded in 2021, though still 63% of pre-pandemic levels.
Every global region recorded “notable increases” in international tourist numbers, according to the UNWTO, with the Middle East enjoyed the strongest increase as arrivals climbed to 83% of pre-pandemic numbers.
Europe reached nearly 80% of pre-pandemic levels as it welcomed 585 million arrivals in 2022. Africa and the Americas both recovered around 65% of their pre-pandemic visitors, while Asia and the Pacific reached only 23%, hampered by the slower removal of Covid-related restrictions.
The UNWTO called the recent lifting of travel restrictions in China “a significant step for the recovery of the tourism sector in Asia, the Pacific and worldwide”.
The resumption of travel from China is likely to benefit Asian destinations in particular in the short term, the UNWTO said, however, this will be shaped by the availability and cost of air travel, visa regulations and Covid-related restrictions in the destinations – with more than 30 countries imposing specific restrictions on travel to and from China.
At the same time, strong demand from the US, driven by a strong dollar, will “continue to benefit destinations, the region and beyond”, the UNWTO reported, adding how Europe will continue to enjoy strong inbound travel flows from the US, partly due to a weaker euro versus the dollar.
The UNWTO said it has seen “notable increases” in tourism spending across most destinations – and in several cases higher than arrivals growth.
This has been fuelled by a number of factors – including longer stay periods, a willingness of travellers to spend more in their destination and higher travel costs due to inflation.
However, the UNWTO cautioned that the global economic downturn could see tourists adopting a “more cautious attitude” in 2023, with reduced spending, shorter trips and travel closer to home.
Furthermore, continued uncertainty over Russian’s invasion of Ukraine “and other mounting geopolitical tensions”, represented risks and could yet hamper tourism’s recovery in the months ahead.
The latest UNWTO Confidence Index shows cautious optimism for January-April, higher than the same period in 2022 backed by the opening up in Asia and strong spending numbers in 2022 from "both traditional and emerging tourism source markets", with France, Germany and Italy as well as Qatar, India and Saudi Arabia all posting “strong results”.
UNWTO secretary-general Zurab Pololikashvili said: "A new year brings more reason for optimism for global tourism. UNWTO anticipates a strong year for the sector even in the face of diverse challenges. Economic factors may influence how people travel in 2023 and UNWTO expects demand for domestic and regional travel to remain strong and help drive the sector’s wider recovery."
