The majority of agent respondents – 97% – to TTG’s latest Travel Agent Tracker survey, which covered trading in the two weeks to Friday 26 November, said they took new enquiries, down two percentage points (ppts) on the record level set two weeks earlier.

Nearly nine in 10 respondents (87%), meanwhile, said they took new bookings during the same period – down one ppt fortnight-on-fortnight and down six ppts on the record (93%) set in the two weeks to Friday 29 October.

The latest data, though, captures only the very earliest of impacts of the onset of Omicron on trading, and of the government’s decision to reintroduce Day 2 PCR testing for all arrivals and add 10 southern African countries to the UK’s red list.

The news comes as a major blow to travel, which had been increasingly confident of a strong winter and successful peaks in January. "Everything has changed; it’s left us with a lot of uncertainty again and increased costs for people to travel," said one respondent.

"Clients are hesitant to book, as they’re worried about new travel restrictions," said another. A third said the new restrictions had "smashed consumer confidence" while a fourth said that the emergence of another variant of concern had "made people wary again". A fifth added, simply: "Booking for the future has become a gamble again."

Others said the government had over-reacted. "The ever-changing rules and knee-jerk reactions by politicians have destroyed customer confidence," said one agent. Another added: "The constantly changing requirements are increasing our customer contact but keeping us too busy to serve customers who want to look or book new holidays."

The arrival of Omicron coincided with agents ranking clients’ worries about travel rules changing while they are in-destination as the biggest issue they are currently facing, with nearly two-thirds of Tracker respondents (62%) citing this as their biggest issue – up 10 ppts fortnight-on-fortnight.

Other issues that rose up the agenda in the most recent two-week survey period included a lack of new bookings and sales (31%, up eight ppts) and low consumer confidence and the need to rebuild confidence (29%, up six ppts).

"The situation with overseas travel seemed to be improving a little, but the recent increase in Covid infections in several European countries, and the return to restrictions and lockdowns, has severely impacted consumer confidence," said one agent. "Now the new variant in South Africa has made the situation for us all even worse."

Another said they were having to take on even more responsibility for clients’ Covid admin. "Customers book; the advice changes; the customers then lose confidence," they said. "For enquiries, we start positive, find the holiday, and give the current advice. But the hurdles of form filling, particularly for elderly clients, is proving a challenge."

Cash flow ‘tight’

Another worry for agents is cash flow, especially if Omicron does significantly impact departures and winter sales. "We are usually quiet in November and December so we were not unduly worried, but there is no doubt people are nervous about travel at the moment with the new strain," said one respondent. "We’ll be in trouble if it’s the same in January as our money will run out."

Others had similar concerns. "Cash flow is OK, but tight," said another agent. "Any dip in trade could easily tip the balance for me." A third added: "Cash flow is getting worse – lots of time spent on admin for no income."

A pause in departures could also hit some agents’ efforts to scale up again after 20 lean months. "We are starting to reach the point where I need to increase staffing hours (to match demand) but haven’t got the cash flow to do so yet," said one high street agent. "This puts pressure on all of us to complete enquiries, do admin and deal with all the questions relating to travelling during Covid."

TTG’s fortnightly Travel Agent Tracker reports are a benefit of TTG+ membership. To find out more, head to ttgmedia.com/membership.