The numbers are truly staggering, with growth continuing apace – and there is a sinister underside to this phenomenal advancement.
Capa, the centre for aviation, recently stated the number of commercial aircraft in service across the world grew 4% in 2017 to 31,600 compared with 2016. There were 1,740 commercial aircraft delivered in 2017, and there are another 17,018 outstanding firm orders (equating to more than 50% extra planes than are currently flying). It will take 10 years to deliver these planes, while many of the old ones will continue flying – and polluting – in developing countries.
The Guardian recently looked at findings from Atmosfair, a German non-government organisation that claims airlines have not invested sufficiently in aircraft with lower greenhouse emissions. Only one in 10 airlines has been successful in keeping greenhouse gas emissions constant while achieving economic growth. Atmosfair also states airlines are not doing enough to keep within the limits set in 2015’s Paris Climate Change Agreement, ratified this month in Katowice, Poland.
In 2017, airline carbon emissions grew 5%; currently, aviation’s carbon emissions represent approximately 3-4% of total CO2 emissions worldwide. Some experts say that, by 2035, emissions from aviation could become as high as 15% of total emissions worldwide as other industries reduce theirs.
Airlines UK says the UK aviation industry is making strenuous efforts to cut emissions; the target is that, by 2050, aircraft emissions will be cut to 50% of 2005 levels. Is that good enough?
According to scientists, we have just 10 years to keep the rise in temperature caused by emissions below 1.5-2°C to avert a global warming catastrophe.
Many point to alternative fuels and advancements in technology, but such solutions are a long way in the future. Action has to be taken now.
Will companies worldwide have to adapt – to function and to achieve profitability without growth? In the aviation industry, should pricing come into play? Is it wrong to encourage consumers to travel worldwide at unrealistically low prices? Can return fares of £50 (often much less) to sate over-capacity ever be justified?
While economic advantages have been created across the world by surges in tourism, our industry seems never to consider the huge planetary downside of this dramatic increase.
If the aviation industry is incapable of balancing growth with reduced emissions, are government quotas on flights the answer? This may seem a nightmare scenario, but the action required now and in the next 10 years will include much introspection and self-sacrifice if we are to deliver a healthy planet for our children.
Noel Josephides is director of Aito and chair of The Travel Foundation
