After what felt like a drought in ocean cruising during a year-long, Covid-enforced shutdown, the floodgates were flung open this summer as ships took to the water once more.
Now, as the UK’s first “seacation” season gives way to an autumn of ex-UK international itineraries, and with lines racing to open bookings for 2023 and even 2024, agents have been left to navigate a curiously diverse market, starting this month.
“It’s an interesting mix,” says Cruise.co.uk deputy managing director Tony Andrews. “You’re still going to have a few seacations to sell, and lines will probably need help filling cabins on the first international sailings. Customers are looking at 2022, but they also have the ability to book 2023 and 2024 – it’s an exciting prospect.”
Cruise Circle managing director Jason Daniels agrees, admitting the multitude of options has, at times, left him and his team scratching their heads when it comes to customer booking trends.
“Agents who are reactive and agile will benefit the most,” he says. “There are bookings coming in for this autumn and winter, but it’ll very much be a lates market.”
SEACATION SUCCESS
The domestic cruise season, agents agree, has been vital to restoring consumer confidence and honing protocols. Travel Village Group chief Phil Nuttall describes the run as “a shining light”, while Andrews says it has allowed cautious cruisers to “dip their toes back in”.
Moreover, he believes it has given them confidence to carry their original bookings over to 2022, while creating an opportunity for the sector to attract new customers. “It’s given the industry a shot in the arm,” he says.
With summer coming to an end, agents highlight “a definite shift” in consumer focus towards the remainder of 2021 and 2022. And, while Daniels and Mundy Cruising managing director Edwina Lonsdale admit current autumn 2021 demand is unlikely to set the world alight, they sense growing confidence among clients.
“We’re seeing people booking for next year when they feel everything will make a bit more sense,” says Lonsdale.
Andrews adds: “In the past two weeks, we’ve started to see that 2022 trend emerge. People are looking further ahead and want to move to 2022 and, in some cases, further still to 2023 because they’re almost certain that’s going to be OK.”
Nuttall, meanwhile, says bookings for 2022 have “on the whole been very encouraging”. And perhaps unsurprisingly, given the travel sector’s turbulent times, the “safe bet” that is the Mediterranean features prominently in Mundy’s 2022 sales mix.
Agents also hope 2022 will herald a resurgence in European river cruising after travel restrictions hampered UK passengers’ 2021 travel plans.
“Sentiment and booking levels are good,” says Andrews. “I suspect river will come back strong from April and May and get back to some level of normality.” Nuttall, too, is optimistic. “Rivers will be mega busy next year,” he says. “They’ve had two years of turmoil – I’m dead excited about things returning.”
FUTURE CONFIDENCE
A capacity crunch could yet prove an issue, though. Lonsdale flags how the “already huge demand” from US travellers heading to Europe could limit availability for Brits who traditionally book closer to departure.
By comparison, capacity appears to have been greatly expanded for 2023 and 2024, with lines putting programmes on sale, or adding to them, on a near-daily basis. Silversea, for example, is already bookable for spring 2024.
Addressing TTG’s Digital Destinations Festival last month, managing director UK and Ireland Peter Shanks said: “We wouldn’t normally be on sale so far out, but we know people want something in the diary.”
Daniels reveals how lead-in times are also being stretched. “Our average ‘booked-to-sail date’ was about six months and now we’re at 12 to 18 months – it has more than doubled,” he says.
“Our clients tend to be early bookers and tend to buy longer and more expensive trips, so [having 2023 and 2024 programmes available] has just enhanced that,” remarks Lonsdale, while Andrews says 2023 and 2024 itineraries going on sale “shows lines are confident about the future”.
CONSUMER APPETITE
Andrews also points to how demand is fairly widely split geographically, with North America and the Caribbean returning towards the midpoint of 2022. Asia and expedition sailings to the Galapagos, meanwhile, see demand later in 2022, with Australasia and South Pacific making a return towards the end of 2022 and first quarter of 2023.
“People have made their minds up that nothing is going to happen in Australasia until much later,” says Andrews. Lonsdale adds Mundy’s future bookings centre around winter 2022/23 and winter 2023/24, with Australia and New Zealand “the key destinations”.
Looking more short-term, attentions are turning to the impending wave season. But in such a changeable market, and with availability spanning some three years, how might this play out?
And where will lines focus their efforts? Agents predict traditional turn-of-year campaigns could be preceded by “mini waves” in October or November.
“Normality is creeping back, but I’m curious to see what lines do for wave,” muses Daniels. “Summer 2022 will be influenced by how lines use the wave period.
Will they hold off until turn-of-year and then really push it? There’s talk of some brands starting wave in October, and that’s something we could see if there’s capacity to fill.”
Lonsdale agrees, predicting increased activity into October. She also offers a pragmatic outlook for the months to come.
“Recovery is not going to happen overnight,” she says. “But it’s the same as coming out of recession or the global economic crash. You say, ‘wow, this is going to be tough for quite some time’, but things do improve and get easier, so there’s a familiarity and a resilience you can draw on,” she continues.
"It [the market] will slowly come back, but we know it’s going to be a slow process. The key positive is that ships are on the water. We knew it would be challenging coming back, but it’s happening."
