Speaking on a panel at World Travel Market London 2017, Caroline Bremner, head of travel and tourism research at Euromonitor International, said that the company has deduced “macro scenarios” and that “no Brexit deal” had the highest probability.
“It [the negotiations] has been acrimonious… we’re looking at that worst-case scenario, but knowing the UK government, it will pull it back and save the day,” said Bremner.
Tui UK and Ireland managing director Nick Longman added that he predicted there would be a Brexit deal, but it would occur “at the 11th hour”.
Asked what he was most concerned about regarding the UK’s departure from EU, Longman said: “The key will be on exchange rates and their impact on average selling prices… it’s making sure
we’ve got the right product mix.
“I think demand will stay quite robust but it’s the price at which people will travel and that will be our big focus for next year.”
He continued: “We’ll launch summer 2019 next April, so we’re planning it already. If we have another year where there’s not a change in exchange rates then we’ve got another year where income an catch up a bit with the price increases.
“I’m beginning to feel optimistic about 2019 and onwards so I’d like to see exchange rates stabilise.”
Meanwhile, Peter Shanks, development director, Imagine Cruising, said he believed in any scenario people would still be able to holiday around Europe, so the cruise industry would “not be impacted”.
Richard Calvert, Shearings Leisure Group chief executive, expressed his concern as a hotelier, with 45 hotels in the UK and 50% of his colleagues working in them being from the European Union.
“There’s a tangible worry among our team about whether they’ll be welcome in the UK,” he said.
“Quite a few of them are leaving and it’s getting difficult to replace them.”
